Research You Can TrustEvolving with Us
Daily and weekly research, a global asset outlook and trading calls, built on nearly a century of market data and every major macro release.
What is Milton Kean
Milton Kean is an independent research firm. We turn nearly a century of market data and every major macro release into deep research with a clear framework, delivered in real time, wherever you are.
To be the research firm investors trust first when markets change.
- Publish research built on verifiable data and tested methods.
- Deliver it on time, every trading day and every week.
- Help every client evolve from following the market to understanding it.
Four reasons clients stay
Independent
We stand on our own. Every view we publish is objective and reasoned from evidence, and no interest that could favour a select few ever shapes our conclusions.
Verifiable
We work only with valid, verified, high-quality data, run through a structured and transparent process.
Our edge
Asymmetric information: high-quality real-time data from public sources, read and delivered to you before the masses.
Evolving with you
Daily briefings for today, weekly studies for context, and an archive that grows with every edition, so your understanding compounds over time.
Markets right now
“The Investors Who Evolve Are The Ones Who Learn”
Research for every horizon
Four steps to your first edition
Choose your research
Deep Research, Global Asset Outlook or Trading Calls. Each product page shows what's inside and how often it arrives.
Pick a plan
Monthly, or yearly with two months free. Cancel anytime from the link in every email.
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Card, PayPal, Apple Pay or Google Pay through our payment partner, with the VAT or GST invoice for your country.
Read it the same morning
Your receipt and first edition arrive by email within a minute. Daily research lands before the US open.
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Fresh from the research desk
The eight latest insights, free to read. New ones appear first and the oldest steps out. Get them by email.
The Morning Brief
Every trading morning before the US open: what moved overnight, the levels that matter today and one chart worth your time. Free, straight to your inbox.
S&P 500 through a presidential term
Month-end closes, price return, 1929–2024. Oct 2026 is month-to-date through 15 Oct. Shaded: 30 Sep of the midterm year to 30 Jun the year after.
The longest record we could assemble
Where to start reading
The third year has carried the cycle
Since 1929 the S&P 500 has gained most in the pre-election year and least in the midterm year. The full Playbook breaks this down by index, sector, mega-cap and every current S&P 500 member.
Mean calendar-year price return of the S&P 500 by year of the presidential term, 1929–2025. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Three steps to your files
Pick a report and licence
Personal for one reader, Team for up to five. Every report shows its contents, data range and a sample page before you buy.
Pay in your currency
Card, PayPal, Apple Pay or Google Pay through our payment partner. VAT or GST is added for your country and shown on the invoice.
Download straight away
Your receipt and download links arrive by email within a minute. Refreshed editions are free for 12 months.
Standards you can check
Every source is listed
Each workbook has a Resources sheet naming the source of every series, with the date it was last pulled. This page cites its numbers the same way.
Every figure can be traced
Statistics are live Excel formulas over the raw data.
No conflicts
We sell research only. No client money, no issuer fees, no broker commissions.
Tested out of sample
Findings are fitted on data to 2015 and checked on 2016 onward. Projections are frozen on a set date and scored forward, so you can see whether they held.
Read the bottom line before you buy
Three pages from the current Playbook, sent to your inbox.
References
- S&P 500 daily closes, 3 Jan 1928 – 15 Oct 2026. Price return; month-end and calendar-year figures. Milton Kean market database, source data from Yahoo Finance.
- US presidential terms, 1929–2024. Year-of-term classification and party control of the White House and Congress. Milton Kean politics table.
- Midterm window study. S&P 500 close on 30 September of each midterm year to the close on 30 June of the following year; 24 windows, 1930–2022.
- Market prices strip. On the live website: Bitcoin from Coinbase in real time; S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, gold and Brent front-month futures from Yahoo Finance, refreshed every 15 seconds. Exchanges may delay index and futures data. When live data is unavailable the strip shows closes from 15 October 2026.
Products
Daily and weekly research, a monthly cross-asset outlook and trading calls. Monthly or yearly plans in USD, before local taxes.
Methodology
The same five steps sit behind every number we publish. Each one is visible in the workbook you receive.
Collect
Daily prices from 1928 where they exist, macro release dates from ALFRED, consensus forecasts from calendar archives. Every series is named on the Resources sheet.
Clean
We use the first-release date of each data point, so revision-only days drop out. Unfinished intraday bars are removed before any statistic is computed.
Measure
Mean, median, standard deviation and hit rate for each phase, window and event. A big move is a daily return at least two standard deviations from its 60-day norm.
Test
Rules are set on data to 2015 and scored on 2016 onward. Projections are frozen on a fixed date and compared with what happens next.
Publish
A short PDF briefing with the bottom line first, plus the full Excel model with live formulas. Editions are refreshed when new data lands.
Sources we use
About Milton Kean
Milton Kean is an independent research firm. We study how markets behave around recurring events: presidential terms, midterm elections, inflation prints, payrolls and central bank meetings.
We started because most cycle research is a single chart with no data behind it. Our reports come with the whole model, so you can check every figure, change an assumption and see what moves.
Founders
[Founder name]
Head of Research[Two lines on background: markets covered, years of experience, previous roles.]
[Partner name]
Head of Clients & Operations[Two lines on background: client work, regions covered, previous roles.]
Company details
Questions from buyers
How do I receive my files?
Right after payment you get an email with your receipt and download links for the PDF and the Excel workbook. The same links stay on your order page. Nothing is shipped physically.
Which currencies and payment methods do you accept?
Prices are set in USD. Our payment partner shows the price in your local currency and accepts major cards, PayPal, Apple Pay and Google Pay.
Do you charge VAT or sales tax?
Our payment partner acts as the seller of record and adds VAT, GST or sales tax where your country requires it. Business buyers can enter a VAT ID at checkout and receive a tax invoice.
Can my team use one copy?
A Personal licence covers one named reader. A Team licence covers up to five people at one firm. For larger teams, write to us for an institutional licence.
Do I get updates?
Yes. Every purchase includes refreshed editions of that report for 12 months. We email you when a new edition is ready.
What is your refund policy?
If a file is damaged or doesn't match its description, write to us within 14 days and we'll fix it or refund you in full. See the refund policy for details.
Is this investment advice?
No. Our research describes markets and what our models show. Trading Calls are general trade ideas sent to every subscriber at the same time; they do not consider your circumstances and are not personal investment advice. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Talk to the research team
Questions about a product, team access or custom research. We reply within one business day.